Intel CPU Roadmap Update

We have already covered some of the major announcements from Intel in our look at Intel's Dual-Core Strategy, but plenty of processors will still be sold between now and when the first dual-core chips ship. We are going to focus primarily on the changes in this roadmap update, but we will list basic information on most currently shipping Intel processors for comparison. There are not that many updates from month to month in Intel's roadmaps, so to help you find the changes from our last Intel Desktop Roadmap we have highlighted them with red text. We will cover all three sectors - desktop, mobile, and server/enterprise - starting with what remains the largest in terms of volume, the desktop sector.

Intel Desktop Lineup LGA775
Performance Processors
Processor	Speed	Cache	FSB	Launch Date	Other
x40 Dual Core	3.20 GHz	2x1MB	800MHz	Q3'05	EM64T, EIST, EDB
x30 Dual Core	3.00 GHz	2x1MB	800MHz	Q3'05	EM64T, EIST, EDB
x20 Dual Core	2.80 GHz	2x1MB	800MHz	Q3'05	EM64T, EIST, EDB
Pentium 4 XE 3.73GHz	3.73GHz	2MB	1066MHz	Q1'05	EM64T, EIST, EDB
Pentium 4 XE 3.46GHz	3.46GHz	512K+2MB L3	1066MHz	Nov'04
Pentium 4 670	3.80GHz	2MB	800MHz	Q2'05	EM64T, EIST, EDB
Pentium 4 660	3.60GHz	2MB	800MHz	Q1'05	EM64T, EIST, EDB
Pentium 4 650	3.40GHz	2MB	800MHz	Q1'05	EM64T, EIST, EDB
Pentium 4 640	3.20GHz	2MB	800MHz	Q1'05	EM64T, EIST, EDB
Pentium 4 630	3.00 GHz	2MB	800MHz	Q1'05	EM64T, EIST, EDB
Pentium 4 580J	4.00GHz	1MB	800MHz	Cancelled
Pentium 4 570J	3.80GHz	1MB	800MHz	Q4'04	EDB
Pentium 4 560J	3.60GHz	1MB	800MHz	Already available	EDB
Pentium 4 550J	3.40GHz	1MB	800MHz	Already available	EDB
Pentium 4 540J	3.20GHz	1MB	800MHz	Already available	EDB
Pentium 4 530J	3.00GHz	1MB	800MHz	Already available	EDB
Pentium 4 520J	2.80GHz	1MB	800MHz	Already available	EDB
Budget Processors
Processor	Speed	Cache	FSB	Launch Date	Other
Celeron D 350	3.20GHz	256KB	533MHz	Q2'05	EDB
Celeron D 345	3.06GHz	256KB	533MHz	Nov'04	EDB
Celeron D 340	2.93GHz	256KB	533MHz	Already Available	EDB
Celeron D 335	2.80GHz	256KB	533MHz	Already Available	EDB
Celeron D 330	2.66GHz	256KB	533MHz	Already Available	EDB
Celeron D 325	2.53GHz	256KB	533MHz	Already Available	EDB

The biggest news is of course the announcement of the x20, x30 and x40 dual-core processors. At present, it is not clear if these are the final names for these parts or simply placeholders. The "x" may be replaced by whatever number eventually gets assigned to the dual-core parts. That's one interpretation of it, anyway, as Intel's roadmap refers to "6xx series" and "xxx" series parts - note the use of the lowercase "x" here. With the addition of the 600 series in the last roadmap, it stands to reason that the dual-core NetBurst chips will eventually be given a numerical designation. "X" is already one of the most overused letters in the alphabet as far as marketing goes, so we can hope that Intel will refrain from adding another component to the already crowded "Generation X" hardware genre. The Pentium 4 eXtreme Edition (TM) has already paved the way, however, so don't get your hopes up. There is no HyperThreading support scheduled for the dual core Processors.

Besides the introduction of the dual core parts, most of the roadmap remains unchanged. A few parts have been pushed back one quarter on their launch date, and in the case of the 4.0 GHz 580J, it has been cancelled. Some will point to the product cancellations - there are a couple more elsewhere in this roadmap - as a sign of Intel's pending doom. We prefer a slightly less alarmist view and believe that Intel is simply being cautious. Overclocking headroom on Intel parts has always been pretty good relative to their competitors, and rather than pushing parts through validation at close to their maximum speed, it is probable that Intel is making sure the parts run reliably. Other than the ill-fated Pentium III 1.13 GHz Coppermine, Intel CPUs have usually been binned at least two levels below their maximum clock rate. Many enthusiasts are already overclocking Prescott cores to 4.0 GHz using only air-cooled HSFs, so such clock speeds are certainly attainable. With more recent steppings of the Prescott core (akin to minor software revisions), we would expect slightly more headroom that 4.0 GHz. Time will tell us whether Intel is really having problems or is simply being conservative - they could have always gone with a water cooled CPU setup like the Apple G5 systems if they felt the increased speed was truly worthwhile.

If you look at the 600 series of processors, Intel has now announced plans to include a 3.0 GHz part, the 630. As these processors will all include 2 MB of L2 cache compared to the 512K L2/2M L3 cache of the earlier Gallatin-based P4EE (or the 1M L2/2M L3 of the socket 775 P4XE), performance should at worst match the older 3.2EE and 3.4EE parts on a clock-for-clock basis. Performance of the Irwindale chips (also referred to as Prescott 2M and Nocona 2M) should also at least match the current Prescott chips, and in most instances it will surpass them. NetBurst remains an extremely bandwidth hungry design, and you can almost see the gears turning in the brains at Intel: The P4EE was able to keep Intel competitive with AMD in the race for the performance crown, and if they combine the 2M cache of the P4EE with the higher clockspeeds and other architectural tweaks of the Prescott design, they ought to get the best of both worlds! With the 630 and 640 targeting the mainstream market, prices should be under $300 when the parts ship in early 2005. The P4XE will continue to be an ultra-expensive part, and to help it maintain a lead relative to the 600 series parts, it will be getting a 1066 MHz FSB on the future versions. Say what you want about the elegance of the design, but the fact is that a 2 MB L2 cache NetBurst chip will remain competitive with most of AMD's Athlon 64 parts. AMD will still hold the lead in certain applications - i.e. gaming - but Intel is not out of the picture yet.

The only remaining change on the desktop platform is that the 600 series of processors as well as the P4XE 3.73 will now have their EM64T support activated. (The P4XE 3.43 uses the older Gallatin design, which is a Northwood core with L3 cache, so there is no 64-bit support to activate.) As Intel's position has always been that they will "have 64-bit enabled processors available when software support is ready," this makes sense. Windows XP-64 should finally ship within the next couple quarters, and 64-bit versions of Linux have been available for a while now. We have yet to see any significant benefit for 64-bit applications, but that should come as 32-bit applications are recompiled and tuned for the additional registers. One topic that comes up repeatedly in the latest Intel roadmap is Intel's "leadership role" in getting 64-bit computing to the desktop. Revisionist history at it's finest! The important thing is that, regardless of who did the work, both x86-64 solutions will be compatible. The same is true of Intel's "Execute Disable Bit" (EDB); in practice, it functions the same as AMD's XD and they are compatible.

Intel Mobile Processors

The mobile sector usually values battery life over top performance, so changes are less dramatic. Updates are once again in red, and you can refer to our last Intel Mobile/Server Roadmap for more information. We have split the mobile charts into two tables, one for the Banias/Dothan processors, which require less battery power and offer better performance at a given clock rate, and a second for mobile processors based off the NetBurst architecture. Intel refers to these as the "mobility" and "transportable" platforms, respectively, and we'll start with the former.

Intel Mobility Socket 479M Lineup
Performance Processors
Processor	Code Name	Speed	Cache	FSB	Launch Date
Pentium M >= 780	Dothan	>= 2.26 GHz	2 MB	533 MHz	Q4'05
Pentium M 780	Dothan	2.26 GHz	2 MB	533 MHz	Q3'05
Pentium M 770	Dothan	2.13 GHz	2 MB	533 MHz	Q1'05
Pentium M 765	Dothan	2.10 GHz	2 MB	400 MHz	Q4'04
Pentium M 760	Dothan	2.00 GHz	2 MB	533 MHz	Q1'05
Pentium M >= 758 LV	Dothan	>= 1.50 GHz	2 MB	400 MHz	Q4'05
Pentium M 758 LV	Dothan	1.50 GHz	2 MB	400 MHz	Q1'05
Pentium M 755	Dothan	2.00 GHz	2 MB	400 MHz	Already available
Pentium M >= 753 ULV	Dothan	>= 1.20 GHz	2 MB	400 MHz	Q4'05
Pentium M 753 ULV	Dothan	1.20 GHz	2 MB	400 MHz	Q1'05
Pentium M 750	Dothan	1.86 GHz	2 MB	533 MHz	Q1'05
Pentium M 745	Dothan	1.80 GHz	2 MB	400 MHz	Already available
Pentium M 740	Dothan	1.73 GHz	2 MB	533 MHz	Q1'05
Pentium M 738 LV	Dothan	1.40 GHz	2 MB	400 MHz	Already available
Pentium M 735	Dothan	1.70 GHz	2 MB	400 MHz	Already available
Pentium M 733/J ULV	Dothan	1.10 GHz	2 MB	400 MHz	Already available
Pentium M 730	Dothan	1.60 GHz	2 MB	533 MHz	Q1'05
Pentium M 725	Dothan	1.60 GHz	2 MB	400 MHz	Already available
Pentium M 723 ULV	Dothan	1.00 GHz	2 MB	400 MHz	Already available
Pentium M 715	Dothan	1.50 GHz	2 MB	400 MHz	Already available
Pentium M 713 ULV	Banias	1.10 GHz	1 MB	400 MHz	Already available
Budget Processors
Processor	Code Name	Speed	Cache	FSB	Launch Date
Celeron M >= 390	Dothan	>= 1.70 GHz	1 MB	400 MHz	Q4'05
Celeron M 390	Dothan	1.70 GHz	512 KB	400 MHz	Q3'05
Celeron M 380	Dothan	1.60 GHz	1 MB	400 MHz	Q1'05
Celeron M >= 373 ULV	Dothan	>= 1.00 GHz	512 KB	400 MHz	Q4'05
Celeron M 373 ULV	Dothan	1.00 GHz	512 KB	400 MHz	Q1'05
Celeron M 370	Dothan	1.50 GHz	1 MB	400 MHz	Q1'05
Celeron M 360/J	Dothan	1.40 GHz	1 MB	400 MHz	Q1'05
Celeron M 353 ULV	Dothan	900 MHz	512 KB	400 MHz	Q1'05
Celeron M 350/J	Dothan	1.30 GHz	1 MB	400 MHz	Q1'05
Celeron M 340	Banias	1.50 GHz	512 KB	400 MHz	Q1'05
Celeron M 330	Banias	1.40 GHz	512 KB	400 MHz	Q1'05
Celeron M 320	Banias	1.30 GHz	512 KB	400 MHz	Q1'05

If you were unimpressed by the changes to the desktop roadmap, the mobile front has even less news. For the true mobility processors, the only new additions are the Celeron M 390 and the Pentium M 780. There are also several "greater than or equal to" entries in the latest roadmap. Whether those are uncertain due to manufacturing concerns or due to a lack of competition is up for debate. The Banias and Dothan cores were really designed with a set performance/thermal level in mind, so we do not find as much tweaking for higher performance as we see in the desktop sector. The 2.26 GHz of the Pentium M 780 is going to be very close to the maximum clock speed that the design can reach without a die shrink or a large increase in heat output.

Intel Transportable Socket 478M Lineup
Performance Processors
Processor	Speed	Cache	FSB	Launch Date
Mobile P4 558	3.60 GHz	1 MB	533 MHz	Cancelled
Mobile P4 552	3.46 GHz	1 MB	533 MHz	Q1'05
Mobile P4 548	3.33 GHz	1 MB	533 MHz	Already available
Mobile P4 538	3.20 GHz	1 MB	533 MHz	Already available
Mobile P4 532	3.06 GHz	1 MB	533 MHz	Already available
Mobile P4 518	2.80 GHz	1 MB	533 MHz	Already available
Budget Processors
Processor	Speed	Cache	FSB	Launch Date
Mobile Celeron D 350	3.20 GHz	256 KB	533 MHz	Cancelled
Mobile Celeron D 345	3.06 GHz	256 KB	533 MHz	Q4'04
Mobile Celeron D 340	2.93 GHz	256 KB	533 MHz	Already available
Mobile Celeron D 335	2.80 GHz	256 KB	533 MHz	Already available
Mobile Celeron D 330	2.66 GHz	256 KB	533 MHz	Already available
Mobile Celeron D 325	2.53 GHz	256 KB	533 MHz	Already available

Taking a look at the "transportable" processors, the only changes are the cancellation of the two fastest - and hottest - processors based off the NetBurst architecture. NetBurst was never really designed for the mobile sector, and most of the laptops that use these chips target the "desktop replacement" (DTR) segment rather than true mobility. The cancellations reflect Intel's acknowledgement of this fact, as well as their confidence in the Pentium M and Celeron M parts. They could have easily shipped these parts, but demand is simply not great enough to warrant it. Not only has Intel cancelled the 558 and 350 parts, but the entire NetBurst mobile line is scheduled to cease production in Q2'05. This is no real loss, as it means future laptops will simply shift to using more appropriate parts.

Intel Server Processors

In the server and workstation segment - or "Enterprise Processors" if you prefer - Intel continues to develop both their Xeon line as well as the IA-64 based Itanium line. We'll start with the more common Xeon roadmap. We have further broken down the Xeon lineup into the uni-processor (UP), dual-processor (DP) and multi-processor (MP) segments.

Pentium 4 Xeon Lineup
Xeon Uni Processor
Processor	Speed	L2 Cache	L3 Cache	FSB	Launch Date
Xeon UP 4.0F	4.00 GHz	1 MB		800 MHz	Cancelled
P4XE 3.73	3.73 GHz	2 MB		1066 MHz	* Desktop Only
Xeon UP 3.8F	3.80 GHz	2 MB		800 MHz	Q2'05
Xeon UP 3.8F	3.80 GHz	1 MB		800 MHz	Q4'04
Xeon UP 3.6F	3.60 GHz	2 MB		800 MHz	Q1'05
Xeon UP 3.6F	3.60 GHz	1 MB		800 MHz	Already Available
Xeon UP 3.4F	3.40 GHz	2 MB		800 MHz	Q1'05
Xeon UP 3.4F	3.40 GHz	1 MB		800 MHz	Already Available
Xeon UP 3.2F	3.20 GHz	2 MB		800 MHz	Q1'05
Xeon Dual Processor
Processor	Speed	L2 Cache	L3 Cache	FSB	Launch Date
Xeon DP 3.8F	3.80 GHz	2 MB		800 MHz	Cancelled
Xeon DP >= 3.6F	>= 3.60 GHz	2 MB		800 MHz	Q3'05
Xeon DP 3.8F	3.80 GHz	1 MB		800 MHz	Q4'04
Xeon DP 3.6F	3.60 GHz	2 MB		800 MHz	Q1'05
Xeon DP 3.6F	3.60 GHz	1 MB		800 MHz	Already Available
Xeon DP 3.4F	3.40 GHz	2 MB		800 MHz	Q1'05
Xeon DP 3.4F	3.40 GHz	1 MB		800 MHz	Already Available
Xeon DP 3.2F	3.20 GHz	2 MB		800 MHz	Q1'05
Xeon DP 3.2F	3.20 GHz	1 MB		800 MHz	Already Available
Xeon DP 3.0F	3.00 GHz	2 MB		800 MHz	Q1'05
Xeon DP 3.0F	3.00 GHz	1 MB		800 MHz	Already Available
Xeon DP 2.8F	2.80 GHz	1 MB		800 MHz	Already Available
Xeon Multi Processor
Processor	Speed	L2 Cache	L3 Cache	FSB	Launch Date
Xeon MP 3.66	3.66 GHz	1 MB		667 MHz	Q1'05
Xeon MP >= 3.50	>= 3.50 GHz	1 MB	8 MB	667 MHz	Q2'05
Xeon MP >= 3.50	>= 3.50 GHz	1 MB	4 MB	667 MHz	Q2'05
Xeon MP 3.16	3.16 GHz	1 MB	4 MB	667 MHz	Q2'05
Xeon MP 3.16	3.16 GHz	1 MB		667 MHz	Q1'05
Xeon MP 3.0	3.00 GHz	512 KB	4 MB	400 MHz	Already Available
Xeon MP 2.7	2.70 GHz	512 KB	2 MB	400 MHz	Already Available
Xeon MP 2.2	2.20 GHz	512 KB	2 MB	400 MHz	Already Available
Xeon MP 2.0	2.00 GHz	512 KB	1 MB	400 MHz	Already Available

Changes in the Xeon lineup in many ways mirror what we saw on the desktop front, with Intel being even more conservative. Unlike the desktop parts, all of the Xeon chips based off the Prescott NetBurst core (i.e. Nocona, Cranford, and Potomac) have EM64T support enabled. There may still be some older pre-E-0 stepping 1MB cache cores around, but they are no longer in production.

On the UP parts, we again see the cancellation of the 4.0 GHz Nocona, while in the DP group we see the cancellation of the 3.8 GHz Irwindale. The reason for the removal of the P4XE 3.73 as a workstation part is not quite the same: the 925XE chipset does not support ECC RAM, which Intel requires for their workstation processors. The P4XE with 1066 FSB will thus be relegated to the enthusiast sector until Intel can come out with a newer chipset. A similar occurrence happened with the initial launch of the 925X chipset, as only later revisions have allowed for DDR2 to function with ECC memory.

There are once more several "greater than or equal to" entries in the roadmap, which in this case we assume to be there pending testing and validation of the parts in an enterprise environment. One thing that Intel has always prided itself on was rock solid stability in the server segment, and other than a few minor slips they tend to deliver. Intel would rather cancel parts or lower clock speeds than risk any instability in the server market. The desire for stability over performance is also reflected in the use of the slower 400 and 667 MHz FSB on the Xeon MP parts. The 4M and 8M L3 cache Potomac cores will be available in Q2'05, but final clock speeds remain an unknown at present, with a target of somewhere around 3.5 GHz.

Itanium 2 Lineup
Itanium Dual Processor
Processor	Speed	L3 Cache	FSB	Launch Date
Itanium 2	Dual Core	TBD	667 FSB	Q4'05
Itanium 2	Dual Core	TBD	533 FSB	Q4'05
Itanium 2 1.6	1.60 GHz	3 MB	533 FSB	Q4'04
Itanium 2 1.6	1.60 GHz	3 MB	400 FSB	Already Available
Itanium 2 1.3 LV	1.30 GHz	3 MB	400 FSB	Nov '04
Itanium Multi Processor
Processor	Speed	L3 Cache	FSB	Launch Date
Itanium 2	Dual Core	TBD	667 FSB	Q4'05
Itanium 2	Dual Core	TBD	533 FSB	Q4'05
Itanium 2	TBD	9 MB	667 FSB	Q3'05
Itanium 2 1.6	1.60 GHz	9 MB	400 FSB	Nov '04
Itanium 2 1.6	1.60 GHz	6 MB	400 FSB	Nov '04
Itanium 2 1.5	1.50 GHz	4 MB	400 FSB	Nov '04

On the Itanium side of the roadmap, we again see the conservative nature of the market. 533 and 667 FSB designs have been pushed back, with the note that they are "dependent on OEM platform capability and validation." The chipsets and processors are available to Intel's partners for testing right now, but it does not look like any will be ready for public consumption just yet. The Madison 9M part that was originally supposed to launch in Q1'05 has been pushed to Q3'05 with clock speed likely to be in the 1.6 GHz range, based on information in past roadmaps. Q4'05 marks the availability of dual core Millington processors, with clock speeds again to be determined. They could very easily slip into 2006, although testing and validation of the parts will begin sometime in 2005.

Most of us may never actually see let alone use an IA-64 platform, but the technologies used in such high-end parts invariably trickle down into the mainstream processors. What sort of technologies are we talking about? One example is the redundant L3 cache design that is used in the Itanium. Due to the large die size of the chips, a flaw in the silicon matrix has a chance of drastically reducing the yields. Since the probability is high that flaws will occur in the large L3 cache rather than in the processor core itself, Intel has designed in some redundancy so that individual L3 banks can be deactivated and the work can be relocated to backup banks. With a die size that is more than four times as large as current Prescott chips, such precautions make sense. Another feature that will likely one day make it's way into desktop processors is the higher dispatch rate of the Itanium cores. Where NetBurst and K8 cores make do with a dispatch rate of up to 3 instructions per clock cycle, current Itanium 2 chips can dispatch up to 8 instructions per core per clock, and future revisions of the architecture could increase this further. It may take a while before we see these features in our home computers, but sooner or later they will come.

That wraps it up for this update of the Intel roadmap. Please remember that all of the dates and information in this roadmap is of a preliminary nature and could easily change. The cancellation of several parts in this update is clear evidence of that fact. Also, this is only a roadmap and not a comparison of processor performance, and not an endorsement per se of any of the parts. We are looking at what Intel is planning relative to what they already have available, and we'll worry about detailed comparisons with AMD when and if the parts actually launch.